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Papers & ReportsCrop Protection2018

Adapting population models for application in pesticide risk assessment: a case study with Mead’s milkweed

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Population models can facilitate assessment of potential impacts of pesticides on populations or species rather than individuals and have been identified as important tools for pesticide risk assessment of nontarget species including those listed under the Endangered Species Act. Few examples of population models developed for this specific purpose are available; however, population models are commonly used in conservation science as a tool to project the viability of populations and the long‐term outcomes of management actions. We present a population model for Mead’s milkweed (Asclepias meadii), a species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act throughout its range across the Midwestern United States. We adapted a published population model based on demographic field data for application in pesticide risk assessment. Exposure and effects were modeled as reductions of sets of vital rates in the transition matrices, simulating both lethal and sublethal effects of herbicides. Two herbicides, atrazine and mesotrione, were used as case study examples to evaluate a range of assumptions about potential exposure-effects relationships. In addition, we assessed buffers (i.e., setback distances of herbicide spray applications from the simulated habitat) as hypothetical mitigation scenarios and evaluated their influence on population‐level effects in the model. The model results suggest that buffers can be effective at reducing risk from herbicide drift to plant populations. These case studies demonstrate that existing population models can be adopted and integrated with exposure and effects information for use in pesticide risk assessment.

Schmolke, A., Roy, C., Brain, R., Forbes, V. (2018), Adapting population models for application in pesticide risk assessment: A case study with Mead’s milkweed. Environ Toxicol Chem. 37: 2235-2245. doi.org/10.1002/etc.4172

Papers & ReportsWater/Wastewater Assessments2017

Prospective aquatic risk assessment for chemical mixtures in agricultural landscapes

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Environmental risk assessment of chemical mixtures is challenging because of the multitude of possible combinations that may occur. Aquatic risk from chemical mixtures in an agricultural landscape was evaluated prospectively in 2 exposure scenario case studies: at field scale for a program of 13 plant‐protection products applied annually for 20 yr and at a watershed scale for a mixed land‐use scenario over 30 yr with 12 plant‐protection products and 2 veterinary pharmaceuticals used for beef cattle. Risk quotients were calculated from regulatory exposure models with typical real‐world use patterns and regulatory acceptable concentrations for individual chemicals. The results could differentiate situations when there was concern associated with single chemicals from those when concern was associated with a mixture (based on concentration addition) with no single chemical triggering concern. Potential mixture risk was identified on 0.02 to 7.07% of the total days modeled, depending on the scenario, the taxa, and whether considering acute or chronic risk. Taxa at risk were influenced by receiving water body characteristics along with chemical use profiles and associated properties. The present study demonstrates that a scenario‐based approach can be used to determine whether mixtures of chemicals pose risks over and above any identified using existing approaches for single chemicals, how often and to what magnitude, and ultimately which mixtures (and dominant chemicals) cause greatest concern.

Holmes, C.M., Brown, C.D., Hamer, M., Jones, R., Maltby, L., Posthuma, L., Silberhorn, E., Teeter, J.S., St J Warne, M., Weltje, L. (2017), Prospective aquatic risk assessment for chemical mixtures in agricultural landscapes. Environ Toxicol Chem. 37: 674-689. doi.org/10.1002/etc.4049

Papers & ReportsHome and Personal Care Products, Water/Wastewater Assessments2017

Use of Prospective and retrospective risk assessment methods that simplify chemical mixtures associated with treated domestic wastewater discharges

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A framework is presented that is intended to facilitate the evaluation of potential aquatic ecological risks resulting from discharges of down‐the‐drain chemicals. A scenario is presented using representatives of many of the types of chemicals that are treated domestically. Predicted environmental chemical concentrations are based on reported loading rates and routine removal rates for 3 types of treatment: trickling filter, activated sludge secondary treatment, and activated sludge plus advanced oxidation process as well as instream effluent dilution. In tier I, predicted effluent concentrations were compared with the lowest predicted‐no‐effect concentration (PNEC) obtained from the literature using safety factors as needed. A cumulative risk characterization ratio (cumRCR) < 1.0 indicates that risk is unlikely and no further action is needed. Otherwise, a tier 2 assessment is used, in which PNECs are based on trophic level. If tier 2 indicates a possible risk, then a retrospective assessment is recommended. In tier 1, the cumRCR was > 1.0 for all 3 treatment types in our scenario, even though no chemical exceeded a hazard quotient of 1.0 in activated sludge or advanced oxidation process. In tier 2, activated sludge yielded a lower cumRCR than trickling filter because of higher removal rates, and the cumRCR in the advanced oxidation process was << 1.0. Based on the maximum cumulative risk ratio (MCR), more than one‐third of the predicted risk was accounted for by one chemical, and at least 90% was accounted for by 3 chemicals, indicating that few chemicals influenced the mixture risk in our scenario. We show how a retrospective assessment can test whether certain chemicals hypothesized as potential drivers in the prospective assessment could have, or are having, deleterious effects on aquatic life.

Diamond, J., Altenburger, R., Coors, A., Dyer, S.D., Focazio, M., Kidd, K., Koelmans, A.A., Leung, K.M.Y., Servos, M.R., Snape, J., Tolls, J., Zhang, X. (2017), Use of prospective and retrospective risk assessment methods that simplify chemical mixtures associated with treated domestic wastewater discharges. Environ Toxicol Chem. 37: 690-702. doi.org/10.1002/etc.4013

Papers & ReportsWater/Wastewater Assessments2017

Aquatic exposures of chemical mixtures in urban environments: approaches to impact assessment

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Urban regions of the world are expanding rapidly, placing additional stress on water resources. Urban water bodies serve many purposes, from washing and sources of drinking water to transport and conduits for storm drainage and effluent discharge. These water bodies receive chemical emissions arising from either single or multiple point sources, diffuse sources which can be continuous, intermittent, or seasonal. Thus, aquatic organisms in these water bodies are exposed to temporally and compositionally variable mixtures. We have delineated source‐specific signatures of these mixtures for diffuse urban runoff and urban point source exposure scenarios to support risk assessment and management of these mixtures. The first step in a tiered approach to assessing chemical exposure has been developed based on the event mean concentration concept, with chemical concentrations in runoff defined by volumes of water leaving each surface and the chemical exposure mixture profiles for different urban scenarios. Although generalizations can be made about the chemical composition of urban sources and event mean exposure predictions for initial prioritization, such modeling needs to be complemented with biological monitoring data. It is highly unlikely that the current paradigm of routine regulatory chemical monitoring alone will provide a realistic appraisal of urban aquatic chemical mixture exposures. Future consideration is also needed of the role of nonchemical stressors in such highly modified urban water bodies.

de Zwart, D., Adams, W., Burgos, M.G., Hollender, J., Junghans, M., Merrington, G., Muir, D., Parkerton, T., De Schamphelaere, K.A.C., Whale, G., Williams, R. (2017), Aquatic exposures of chemical mixtures in urban environments: Approaches to impact assessment. Environ Toxicol Chem. 37: 703-714. doi.org/10.1002/etc.3975

Papers & ReportsWater/Wastewater Assessments2017

Prospective mixture risk assessment and management prioritizations for river catchments with diverse land uses

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Ecological risk assessment increasingly focuses on risks from chemical mixtures and multiple stressors because ecosystems are commonly exposed to a plethora of contaminants and nonchemical stressors. To simplify the task of assessing potential mixture effects, we explored 3 land use-related chemical emission scenarios. We applied a tiered methodology to judge the implications of the emissions of chemicals from agricultural practices, domestic discharges, and urban runoff in a quantitative model. The results showed land use-dependent mixture exposures, clearly discriminating downstream effects of land uses, with unique chemical “signatures” regarding composition, concentration, and temporal patterns. Associated risks were characterized in relation to the land‐use scenarios. Comparisons to measured environmental concentrations and predicted impacts showed relatively good similarity. The results suggest that the land uses imply exceedances of regulatory protective environmental quality standards, varying over time in relation to rain events and associated flow and dilution variation. Higher‐tier analyses using ecotoxicological effect criteria confirmed that species assemblages may be affected by exposures exceeding no‐effect levels and that mixture exposure could be associated with predicted species loss under certain situations. The model outcomes can inform various types of prioritization to support risk management, including a ranking across land uses as a whole, a ranking on characteristics of exposure times and frequencies, and various rankings of the relative role of individual chemicals. Though all results are based on in silico assessments, the prospective land use–based approach applied in the present study yields useful insights for simplifying and assessing potential ecological risks of chemical mixtures and can therefore be useful for catchment‐management decisions.

Posthuma, L., Brown, C.D., de Zwart, D., Diamond, J., Dyer, S.D., Holmes, C.M., Marshall, S., Burton Jr., G.A. (2017), Prospective mixture risk assessment and management prioritizations for river catchments with diverse land uses. Environ Toxicol Chem. 37: 715-728. doi.org/10.1002/etc.3960

Papers & ReportsWater/Wastewater Assessments2017

Estimation of U.S. sewer residence time distributions for national-scale risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals

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Sewer residence time (the amount of time a given volume of wastewater resides in a sewer system prior to treatment) can have a significant influence on predictions of environmental fate and transport of wastewater constituents and corresponding risk assessment. In this study, a geographic information systems-based approach for estimating the distribution of sewer residence times for the U.S. was developed using road networks as a spatial proxy for sewer networks. The suitability of the approach was evaluated using case study municipalities, and the approach was subsequently extrapolated to 3422 wastewater treatment facilities of varying size across the U.S. to estimate a national distribution of sewer residence times. The estimated national median residence time for the U.S. was 3.3 h. Facilities serving smaller municipalities (< 1 million gallons per day) had comparatively shorter sewer residence times to facilities serving larger municipalities, though the latter comprise a greater proportion of overall national wastewater volume. The results of this study provide an important data resource in combination with chemical in-sewer biodegradation data to enable probabilistic risk assessment of consumer product chemicals disposed of down the drain.

Kapo, K.E., Paschka, M., Vamshi, R., Sebasky, M., McDonough, K. (2017), Estimation of U.S. sewer residence time distribution for national-scale risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals. Science of The Total Environment, Volumes 603-604, 445-452. doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.075

Papers & ReportsWater/Wastewater Assessments2016

istreem®: An approach for broad-scale in-stream exposure assessment of “down-the-drain” chemicals

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The “in‐stream exposure model” iSTREEM®, a Web‐based model made freely available to the public by the American Cleaning Institute, provides a means to estimate concentrations of “down‐the‐drain” chemicals in effluent, receiving waters, and drinking water intakes across national and regional scales under mean annual and low‐flow conditions. We provide an overview of the evolution and utility of the iSTREEM model as a screening‐level risk assessment tool relevant for down‐the‐drain products. The spatial nature of the model, integrating point locations of facilities along a hydrologic network, provides a powerful framework to assess environmental exposure and risk in a spatial context. A case study compared national distributions of modeled concentrations of the fragrance 1,3,4,6,7,8‐Hexahydro‐4,6,6,7,8,8,‐hexamethylcyclopenta‐γ‐2‐benzopyran (HHCB) and the insect repellent N,N‐Diethyl‐m‐toluamide (DEET) to available monitoring data at comparable flow conditions. The iSTREEM low‐flow model results yielded a conservative distribution of values, whereas the mean‐flow model results more closely resembled the concentration distribution of monitoring data. We demonstrate how model results can be used to construct a conservative estimation of the distribution of chemical concentrations for effluents and streams leading to the derivation of a predicted environmental concentration (PEC) using the high end of the concentration distribution (e.g., 90th percentile). Data requirements, assumptions, and applications of iSTREEM are discussed in the context of other down‐the‐drain modeling approaches to enhance understanding of comparative advantages and uncertainties for prospective users interested in exposure modeling for ecological risk assessment.

Kapo, K.E., DeLeo, P.C., Vamshi, R., Holmes, C.M., Ferrer, D., Dyer, S.D., Wang, X., White-Hull, C. (2016), iSTREEM®: An approach for broad-scale in-stream exposure assessment of “down-the-drain” chemicals. Integr Environ Assess Manag. 12: 782-792. doi.org/10.1002/ieam.1793

Papers & ReportsWater/Wastewater Assessments2016

Eco-epidemiology of aquatic ecosystems: Separating chemicals from multiple stressors

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A non-toxic environment and a good ecological status are policy goals guiding research and management of chemicals and surface water systems in Europe and elsewhere. Research and policies on chemicals and water are however still disparate and unable to evaluate the relative ecological impacts of chemical mixtures and other stressors. This paper defines and explores the use of eco-epidemiological analysis of surveillance monitoring data sets via a proxy to quantify mixture impacts on ecosystems. Case studies show examples of different, progressive steps that are possible.

Case study data were obtained for various regions in Europe and the United States. Data types relate to potential stressors at various scales, concerning landscape, land-use, in-stream physico-chemical and pollutant data, and data on fish and invertebrates. The proxy-values for mixture impacts were quantified as predicted (multi-substance) Potentially Affected Fractions of species (msPAF), using Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) models in conjunction with bioavailability and mixture models.

The case studies summarize the monitoring data sets and the subsequent diagnostic bioassessments. Variation in mixture toxic pressures amongst sites appeared to covary with abundance changes in large (50-86%) percentages of taxa for the various study regions. This shows that an increased mixture toxic pressure (msPAF) relates to increased ecological impacts. Subsequent multi-stressor evaluations resulted in statistically significant, site-specific diagnosis of the magnitudes of ecological impacts and the relative contributions of different stress factors to those impacts. This included both mixtures and individual chemicals. These results allow for ranking stressors, sites and impacted species groups. That is relevant information for water management.

The case studies are discussed in relation to policy and management strategies that support reaching a non-toxic environment and good ecological status. Reaching these goals requires not only focused sectoral policies, such as on chemical- or water management, but also an overarching and solution-focused view.

Posthuma, L., Dyer, S.D., de Zwart, D., Kapo, K.E., Holmes, C.M., Burton Jr., G.A. (2016), Eco-epidemiology of aquatic ecosystems: Separating chemicals from multiple stressors. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 573, 1303-1319.

Papers & ReportsHome and Personal Care Products, Human Pharmaceuticals, Water/Wastewater Assessments2015

A framework for screening sites at risk from contaminants of emerging concern

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Trace levels of a variety of currently unregulated organic chemicals have been detected in treated wastewater effluents and surface waters that receive treated effluents. Many of these chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) originate from pharmaceuticals and personal care products that are used widely and that frequently are transported “down the drain” to a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). Actual effects of CECs on aquatic life have been difficult to document, although biological effects consistent with effects of some CECs have been noted. There is a critical need to find appropriate ways to screen wastewater sites that have the greatest potential of CEC risk to biota. Building on the work of several researchers, the authors present a screening framework, as well as examples based on the framework, designed to identify high‐risk versus lower‐risk sites that are influenced by WWTP effluent. It is hoped that this framework can help researchers, utilities, and the larger water resource community focus efforts toward improving CEC risk determinations and management of these risks.

Diamond, J., Munkittrick, K., Kapo, K.E., Flippin, J. (2015), A framework for screening sites at risk from contaminants of emerging concern. Environ Toxicol Chem. 34: 2671-2681. doi:10.1002/etc.3177

PresentationsHome and Personal Care Products2018

Estimating environmental emissions and aquatic fate of sludge-bound CECs using spatial modeling and US datasets

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In the US, 50% of the sludge produced during wastewater treatment is recycled to land (www.epa.gov/biosolids). Some chemicals in consumer products may be highly removed during the wastewater treatment process due to sorption and binding to organic matter, ending up in sludge solids where it has the potential to be applied to land surfaces, subject to erosion or runoff processes potentially entering nearby surface waters. However, biosolids mass applied to land is not evenly distributed across the US landscape due to variable population density, local sludge management practices, and availability of land application sites. We have developed a proof-of-concept model to aide in the prospective assessment of CECs contained in WWTP sludge applied to land. This spatially-explicit, national model is based on publicly available datasets, combined with a spatial-hydrologic framework containing geographically variable emissions linked to a river network allowing for environmental transport via surface water. The hydrologic framework is based on a set of basins and rivers (www.hydrosheds.org) linked to emission characteristics for over 77,000 sub-basins. Emission characteristics are derived from facility data in the USEPA Clean Watersheds Needs Survey (www.epa.gov/cwns) to estimate consumer product usage linked to wastewater treatment, and spatially-variable data on biosolid applications. The USDA Cropland Data Layer (www.nass.usda.gov) provides potential land application sites, from which proximity to surface water plays a role in the potential for CECs to transport from land to freshwater (using a meta-model estimated from pesticide assessment models). Concentrations of CECs are routed through the river network based on local river attributes (e.g., flow) combined with assumptions about chemical fate in the aquatic environment. Results of various simulations show the spatial patterns of biosolids applications, potential to enter surface water, and estimated freshwater concentrations of an ingredient in a hypothetical consumer product. Implications of altering model assumptions are discussed. While the presented material is a simulated example of the environmental emission and fate of a consumer product ingredient, it represents a viable approach to assessing whether this pathway via land applied biosolids may be of concern for consumer product chemicals, and ultimately helping to inform environmental policy on this subject.

Christopher Holmes, Joshua Amos, Amy Ritter, and Marty Williams (Waterborne Environmental). Estimating environmental emissions and aquatic fate of sludge-bound CECs using spatial modeling and US datasets. Platform SETAC 2018. Sacramento, CA.